According to the 2008 Failed States Index, Pakistan ranks 12th among top 60 nation-states most likely to fail. The deteriorating situation in Pakistan has been caused by a perfect storm of economic and political catastrophes. Corrupt and ineffective leadership along with the devastating global recession has driven Pakistan to the brink of collapse, and should it fall would have innumerable consequences for the international community.
Losing the War on Terror
The War on Terror has been a losing battle for the people of Pakistan. Although initially the U.S. was able to cripple most elements of the Taliban and al Qaeda, the shift in focus and resources to Iraq has allowed them to regroup and rearm in the unregulated border lands of Pakistan, with devastating consequences for the nation.
For siding with the U.S. the extremists in Pakistan have turned their guns on both U.S. military and Pakistani targets. Attempts by the Pakistani army to uproot the extremists within the border lands have failed and caused many casualties and has only led to further public discontent within the country. Terrorist attacks within the country have also drastically increased, and with Taliban forces within 60 miles of Islamabad, many are now concerned that Pakistan’s collapse is imminent.
What Happens if Pakistan Fails?
The failure of Pakistan could have potentially devastating consequences for the international community. By all accounts, the void left by a failed Pakistani government would be quickly filled by the Taliban and other extremist groups within the nation. For the United States, the failure of Pakistan would mean the loss of an invaluable ally in its war against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan.
This would be a major setback in the U.S. campaign which has already taken nearly 8 years. Pakistan has also been the beneficiary of billions of dollars worth of military aid from the U.S. which may very well end up in the hands of the extremists should the Pakistani government and army collapse. However, the U.S. would not be the only loser should Pakistan fail. The nation’s failure could have far reaching consequences for all of its neighbors.
The nation that probably has most to fear from Pakistan’s collapse is India. Pakistan is notorious for harboring anti-Indian, Islamic extremist organizations, such as the one that carried out the Mumbai terror attacks. Pakistan’s failure has the potential of arming these extremists groups with the ultimate weapon of mass destruction, nukes.
Not only would India be at an increased risk of nuclear attack by a radicalized Pakistan, but the risk of increased and persistent terror attacks could hurt the country’s booming economy, which in turn could further damage the world economy.
How Should the International Community Help Pakistan?
The world knows that something must be done to avert crisis in Pakistan, but exactly what and how are hard questions to answer. Under the Bush administration, America offered Pakistan numerous military incentives in exchange for fighting the terrorists within its borders, but ignored the underlying economic and social problems affecting the nation.
Now under the Obama administration, America is trying to stabilize Pakistan economically in the hopes that a more stable Pakistan will be able to weaken the influence of the terrorists, who more often than not have more power in the provinces than the Pakistani government. The U.S. is also calling on its NATO and other allies to send aid to the failing nation. However, these efforts may be coming too late, and Pakistan may not be able to quickly recover from the grave state that it now finds itself in.
The Military Option
A less appealing or even plausible option for the international community is to pursue a military solution to the Pakistani debacle. However, this would take a tremendous commitment of military manpower and capital, something which few Western nations have to spare or are even willing to use. It is unlikely that the U.S. or any Western power would pursue a prolonged occupation of Pakistan.
India, which has already fought numerous wars with Pakistan, would have to seriously consider an incursion into Pakistani territory to at the least secure its nuclear stockpile. However, any attempt to occupy Pakistan by any foreign power would probably be met with the fiercest resistance akin to that of the Soviet-Afghan and Vietnam wars, resulting in heavy casualties. In reality, there is no easy solution to help stabilize Pakistan, and the world is running out of time to save this strategically important country.
References
Bajoria, J.B. Pakistan’s Fragile Foundations. The Council on Foreign Relations.
(2008). Failed States IndexForeign Policy.
Pakistan CIA World Fact Book
Pakistan. Infoplease.
